Areas of Focus in Jan 2025

I’m planning on publishing a summary of the topics I explored over the past month and some of the interesting content around these topics. This will very much evolve but this is a start. Some of these will be recurring themes that I’m exploring from an investing perspective (e.g. wealth mgmt) and some will just be fascinating articles or data points that I come across (e.g. parlays). Either way I hope its a helpful way of sharing data or trends that I found interesting.

At the bottom I’m including TV shows, books, and movies that I liked this month as I always greatly appreciate recs for each of these.

Please send anything you think I’d be interested in checking out!

Data / Topics

Millennial Wealth

JPM recently released this chart on relative wealth across generations at different ages:

Note: The dark blue bars measure wealth when each generation was 23-38 years old. The teal bars reflect wealth when each generation was 28-43 years old

A lot of the hype around millennials not having sufficient savings was overblown and it was just a question of market timing as much of this wealth creation can be explained by asset valuations skyrocketing over the past few years. Nick Maggiuilli did some great analysis on the old adage “its not about timing the market but time in the market” here and here.

I continue to be extremely bullish around the opportunity for disruption in the wealth space focused on the CONSUMER. Millennials and older Gen Z have real wealth, need advice on their money, and are willing to pay for it. The only products appealing to these consumers are either robo-advisors or glorified gambling apps. There is a real need for a solution that provides high-quality personalized advice at scale.

Solana

I recently came across this chart from Electric Capital looking at the absolute number and growth of developers building on different blockchains:

Often when I see crypto adoption metrics its price appreciation or gas fees which are just a reflection of speculation. This chart stood out because its looking at people actually utilizing the technology. This would indicate that Solana is becoming the primary platform for builders as the number of developers grew 83% to Ethereum’s -22% decline (albeit some likely transitioned to Base). As we begin to see more adoption of blockchains for real world use cases, its worth better understanding the underlying infrastructure. And yes, I recognize that people have been banging the stablecoin drum for a long time.

Venture Buyouts

This one is really just a shoutout to the awesome work our team at GC is doing in the venture buyout space. The WSJ had an article on buying “ho hum” businesses and infusing them with AI. If anyone wants to chat more about this, feel free to reach out!

Customer Support Agents

Customer support is one of the most obvious use cases for AI driving material impact on efficiency and so I wanted to start to better understand the landscape. Bret Taylor from Sierra did a great interview with Patrick O’Shaughnessy on ILTB:

These solutions are certainly interesting for their ability to decrease costs but the holy grail here will be to also increase revenue. I’ve heard from customers of these platforms that they’re already better at convincing their customers not to churn than traditional outsourced firms. It will be interesting (or terrifying) once these are set on upselling you. The gating factor here appears to be that many consumers take negative news (i.e. they can’t get that refund) way worse from a chatbot than from a human even if its the same outcome.

Parlays

The WSJ had an article on how gambling apps are focused on driving more parlays (bets that require multiple outcomes but lead to a higher payout). This chart on their relative take rate says it all:

This dovetails with a series I found from Michael Lewis on the rise of sports betting. He claims the average vig (or take rate) on a standard bet is ~5% but each successive leg of the parlay adds an incremental ~5% so a 3-team parlay would imply an expected value of $0.85 on the dollar.

TLDR I guess just bet the chiefs to win straight up next Sunday.

Books / Movies / TV

Books: I just finished Ken Follett’s Pillars of the Earth. Its a historical fiction epic about the constructing of a cathedral in 12th century England. A very fun read and a great blend of architecture, church politics, and trade. For a more modern take on church politics check out Conclave.

Film: With a shockingly similar theme to Pillars of the Earth, The Brutalist is definitely a can’t miss film. The story is really compelling and some of the shots are incredible. While it is incredibly long (over 3.5 hours) and does have some VERY dark moments, it doesn’t feel like a slog. I’m not sure the last time I had a 15 minute intermission in a movie but I can say I’m definitely a fan for something this long.

TV: Just finished The Agency and it was a really fun espionage thriller with great action. Also definitely check out the french show, Le Bureau that its based on. You will need a Sundance Now subscription (lol) for the latter but I promise its worth it.